Baltrum - Global warming/island?

Global warming/island?

ok this is a stupid question... My grand parents have bought an island in the Bahamas and have developed it so it's livable... We the family spend our vacations there and plan to keep the property for a very long time. But with the global warming issues the sea levels are rising so I was wondering how much time (approximately) is left before the island literally "sinks" into the ocean?? and lol could it be actually possible? please don't judge...

Public Comments

That depends on how high the land is above sea level. Some islands have already sunk beneath the waves, some are threatened, and some are in no immediate danger. I suspect that there will be no problem during your lifetime.
over a very large amount of time the island could be underwater, but i wouldn't worry about it. How long it will last depends on how high the island is above sea level and if the climate changes even more but it should last at least a few hundred years.
that depends on how long you plan on living, not on global warming. no, it isnt possible because global warming isnt real.
Well the current sea level rise rate is 1mm per year, of course it could just as easily start going down, But assuming that it continues to rise then it will rise a metre in the next 1000 years. however it is a safe assumption that your island is a lot more than 1 metre above sea level,so a lot longer than a 1000 years. Edit WOw just read something amazing in the other answers , apparently in the world of the warmer, water no longer levels itself and sea levels can rise differently in different locations???????. I'll look for that in my next cup of tea although somehow I doubt that the level of tea wil be higher on one side of the cup. Edit For Antarcticice. Please never ever refer to me again , you don't know me , despite your claims to have examined my exam certificates and checked my educational history. Now I refrain from criticising your unscientific religious proaganda lies , so please stop mentioning me.Shouldn't you be off researching the holocaust or something or stating that Hilter loved Co2. A warmer calling me unscientific , that really takes the biscuit. Back to the question, sea levels dropped for a large part of this centuary, so if sea levels drop you couls end up with a much bigger island.
Hi Lady, Not a stupid question and I won’t judge. There’s a lot of misconceptions regarding sea-level rises. You tend to hear one person saying the seas aren’t rising and there’s no such thing as global warming then someone else comes along and says New York’s going to be underwater soon. As is so often the case, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Sea-levels are rising but not by all that much, averaged globally the rise is 3.2mm a year (one eighth of an inch). In some places, notably parts of the Indian Ocean, levels are rising considerably faster, in other places they’re rising slower and in some places they’re falling slightly. Climatic Outlook for the Bahamas ¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯ The main threat the weather poses to the Bahamas is from hurricanes and tropical storms. However, the main problem posed by climate changes comes from the rising of sea temperatures around the Bahamas. As the temperature rises the seas expand causing a rise in sea-levels. The Bahamas consist of over 700 islands spread over an area of more than 150,000km². 60% of this land is between 1 and 2 metres above sea-level, 20% is less than 1 metre above sea level. Andros Island which makes up about half of the total land mass is particularly low-lying. Parts of Andros are now being swamped at high tide and whilst this isn’t an immediate threat it does pose potential problems for the future through the loss of housing and contamination of fresh water reservoirs. The Bahamas have a very low water table which is directly affected by sea-levels, as the seas rise the water, even if it’s inland, can become salinised and undrinkable. Other potential problems include flooding, erosion, subsidence, instability, environmental degradation and conservation impact. These problems are exacerbated by the construction of roads, sea-walls, buildings and the planting of casuarinas. Current sea-level rises are about 4mm a year, a bit above the global average. It’s very difficult to say what will happen in the future as there are a lot of unknowns. It’s probable that in the next 100 years sea-levels will rise by about 600mm, it could be as little as 300mm or as much as 900mm. If it’s the upper figure it will mean the loss of quite a lot of the low lying land, about 20% of the total land area. More than anything, the geography of the island your grand-parents have bought will determine how it’s likely to be affected by global warming in the future. If you know the altitudes of parts of the islands the following will give you something to go on… 500mm sea-level rise – 40 to 120 years 1000mm sea-level rise – 70 to 210 years 1500mm sea-level rise – 90 to 275 years 2000mm sea-level rise – 110 to 335 years 2500mm sea-level rise – 130 to 395 years 3000mm sea-level rise – 150 to 450 years 3500mm sea-level rise - 165 to 495 years 4000mm sea-level rise – 185 to 555 years 4500 mm sea-level rise – 200 to 600 years 5000 mm sea-level rise - 215 to 645 years Bear in mind that the above figures are projected sea-level rises on the assumption that we don’t do anything to address climate change. As the issue becomes more pressing the chances are that in the future we will be left with no option but to take decisive action. This could significantly slow down the rate at which sea-levels are rising so the time spans mentioned above could well be on the short side. Given that the Bahamas is in the path of hurricanes and tropical storms I would assume that any buildings that have been constructed will not be right down at sea-level. If they were at an altitude of say 3000mm then in the very worst case scenario they should be there for at least 150 years and probably much longer than that. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - EDIT: TO SAILOR8 Accelerated glacial advance is a cause for some concern and earlier this year I spent some time studying thus in the field. In a nutshell and without getting technical, what appears to be happening is a combination of several factors. At some sites there is increased glacial creep, this is where the glacier advances slower around the sides and base then the central portion. At other sites there is accelerated basal sliding, this is where the entire glacier advances as one solid mass. It would appear that the primary cause for this is melting of surface ice that forms streams that drop into moulins (sinkholes). This melts ice within the body of the glacier itself but it also means more water percolates through the ice and down to the ground beneath where the water forms a layer and acts as a lubricant. This appears to be happening more so in Greenland than elsewhere, which is really what would be expected. Elsewhere the ice tends to melt completely or is so stable that it’s not going anywhere for a long time yet. You mentioned the expansion of the oceans, this is actually the largest cause of sea-level rise. Averaged globally seas are rising by 3.2mm a year, this can be broken down into 1.6mm from thermal expansion of the seas and oceans, 1.5mm from the melting of ice in Greenland and Antarctica and 0.1mm from isostatic rebound (land springing back up once it’s no longer being deformed by ice). In some parts of the world the seas and warming more than elsewhere and the Bahamas is one such place, hence the sea level rise here is 4.0mm a year, 2.4mm of which is from thermal expansion. You’re correct to say that predictions have changed and it now appears that earlier predictions underestimated sea-level rises. The most recent IPCC report (2007) estimated sea-level rises of between 190mm and 590mm by the year 2100 but since then further study indicates it’s likely to be more than this. The recent GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite data suggests the rise could, in the worst case scenario, be as much as 1400mm. - - - - - - - - - - - EDIT: TO PINDAR There are numerous factors that affect regional sea levels including density, salinity, temperature, astronomics, influx, currents, pressure and various other factors. Depending on the direction of change of each aspect, the sum may be a net increase or decrease in sea levels or they could all balance out. It’s for this reason that sea levels in parts of Scandinavia are falling by 2mm a year whereas in parts of Melanesia they’re rising by 50mm a year.
you nor your children or their children will see it disappear and will it matter to your family very much 100 years from now? you could always get some of your investment back if you allow those barges to dump garbage on it and cover it up with dirt then build condos on it. You can't take it with you so enjoy it while it's there for you.
Trevor had a lot of the facts. I think Trevor may have missed how much is allowed for the glaciers that were suppose to be stuck to the ocean floor and are now breaking free. The water running under these glaciers have now changed some of the predictions. Another thing that was not taken into account was the expansion of water as it warms, the oceans are warming too. As for the guy with the tea cup, well the Earth is no tea cup. The water around the world is not level. It is not his tea cup. There is this energy they call gravity that pulls in many directions against mass. This energy is what helps to make tides. That big old light up in the sky at night has something to do with this. There is also this movement they call rotation that effects liquids such as the water on our planet. Another thing to think about is what they call the Domino effect, when things start they tend to move faster and faster. But as for the island, naw. You should be able to walk your beaches and kick sand all your life, maybe!
Trevor is quite correct, Pindar appears to be just making things ups as he goes, certain there are regional differences in sea level rise for the reason listed by Trevor. The figures usually given to describe the changes are averaged. Again I have no idea were Pindar plucks his 1mm figure, as the accepted figure for sea level rise was 1.7mm up to the early 1990s the rate from then increased to 3.26 as the world continues to warm that figure can also be expected to continue to increase further. http://climate.nasa.gov/keyIndicators/index.cfm#SeaLevel sailor8: A good portion of the rise is caused by thermal expansion, this has not been missed out it is listed as the cause of much of the sea level rise till recently, as the world continues to warm it is expected thermal expansion will continue and glacial melt will start to play a larger part in future rises. http://www.aad.gov.au/MediaLibrary/asset/MediaItems/ml_40087432962963_PROOF_FS_SeasLevelRise.pdf The upper figure of the projections is as much as 2m, this is more than enough to very serious habitability and economic effects for all of us.
You may have nothing to worry about. Sometimes things don't work out as the climate change scientists suggest. It appears that despite all the predictions, some islands are in fact RISING. http://www.news.com.au/travel/news/climate-change-increases-island-size-scientists-say/story-e6frfq80-1225874903902 In the world of climate change, in spite of true believers stating the science is settled, niggling inconsistencies dent my confidence in the doomsday predictions.
It is almost entertaining, were it not so sad. Some areas of science has gooten to the point of seeing nothing wrong with scaring people for no reason at all. The seas are rising about 2 mm/year. There is nothing to worry about, don't believe me? Ask Al Gore, with his beach front property. If their own spokesperson is not afraid, perhaps you shouldn't be either. Further, the measurements of teh sea level rises have been very inconsistent as some land naturally rises and falls, due to other things than AGW. Further the temps have been rising since the last ice age, and the glaciers have been melting since that time too. Thus the sea level has been rising before man could ahve had anything to do with it. Morner, one of the foremost experts on sea level, places the current sea level rise at 1-2mm, other have 3.4. None have demonstrated the exponential rise necessary to create the fear that they have been scaring the public with. The crap estimates used by trevor assume exponential rise in sea level, which they have yet to demonstrate will occur. These estimates use the temp models which alos have an exponential rise. All of the models have been overestimating the temp changes. In fact of the 3 models developed by Hansen, the only model that stayted consistent with the data, was the one that had no exponential increase. So why do they continue to preach the exponential increase when it doesn't match with the current data? It is the only way to generate the necessary fear in order to justify the billions upon billions of dollars that goes into global warming research.
Don't think it will sink (I hope not!) That would be a different issue than sea level rising. Is the island volcanic in origin or a flat sand-covered reef? If is is the volcano, you have some elevation so only your beaches would really be affected over the next 50 to 100 years. If if is a sand bar on coral, and it is sinking, I don't know. The sinking would be your real issue , but sea level could rise enough in the next few decades to reduce the size due to AGW. However, I'd worry more about hurricanes and tropical storms. If you want to sell it, let me know. You'll have to let it go real cheap though because of global warming ;) I think I'd just enjoy your vacations for decades to come.